The NZD
NZD
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is the official currency of New Zealand and the tenth most traded currency in the world. Also referred to as the Kiwi, the currency is also utilized in several Pacific islands, including Tokelau, the Cook Islands, Pitcairn islands, and Niue.The NZD’s history is long, extending back to 1934 with the creation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While far from the most traded currency in the global forex market, the NZD has a key role nonetheless.The NZD is considered as a carry trade currency given it is a relatively high yielding currency. Traders typically buy the NZD and fund it with a lower yielding currency such as the Japanese yen (JPY) or the Swiss franc (CHF).What Factors Affect the NZD?Relative to the US dollar or British pound, the NZD can be much more volatile and dependent on external economic stress or turmoil.Investors with risk appetite often buy the currency, while market fears and crises place negative pressure on the NZD.There are also several factors that can specifically drive the NZD in the forex market. This includes dairy prices as New Zealand is the largest exporter of whole milk powder in the world. A rise in milk prices can lead to spikes in the NZD. By extension, tourism numbers are also important to the NZD.This is due to New Zealand being dependent on tourism as a sizable proportion of its economy. Growing tourism would indicate a higher NZD, and vice versa.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is the official currency of New Zealand and the tenth most traded currency in the world. Also referred to as the Kiwi, the currency is also utilized in several Pacific islands, including Tokelau, the Cook Islands, Pitcairn islands, and Niue.The NZD’s history is long, extending back to 1934 with the creation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While far from the most traded currency in the global forex market, the NZD has a key role nonetheless.The NZD is considered as a carry trade currency given it is a relatively high yielding currency. Traders typically buy the NZD and fund it with a lower yielding currency such as the Japanese yen (JPY) or the Swiss franc (CHF).What Factors Affect the NZD?Relative to the US dollar or British pound, the NZD can be much more volatile and dependent on external economic stress or turmoil.Investors with risk appetite often buy the currency, while market fears and crises place negative pressure on the NZD.There are also several factors that can specifically drive the NZD in the forex market. This includes dairy prices as New Zealand is the largest exporter of whole milk powder in the world. A rise in milk prices can lead to spikes in the NZD. By extension, tourism numbers are also important to the NZD.This is due to New Zealand being dependent on tourism as a sizable proportion of its economy. Growing tourism would indicate a higher NZD, and vice versa. Read this Term is the strongest and the EUR is the weakest as the North American session begins. Today in the US, the week will end with the core and headline PCE inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market. Read this Term measure (along with personal income and personal spending) being released. The Core PCE is expected to dip to 4.9% from 5.2% last month. The headline is expected to remain steady at 6.6%. The MoM are expected to come in at 0.8% for the headline and 0.3% for the core measure. How that data comes out will likely be the influence for the end of year trading (for the USD, stocks, bonds). US trade balance and inventories will also be released at 8:30 AM, but focus will be on the inflation measures.
With the Nasdaq and S&P up for 3 of the 4 days so far this week (Nasdaq is up 3.4%, S&P is up 4% this week), and the Dow up 4 for 4 (up 4.4% this week), the major indices are on target to close higher this week breaking 7 week declines for the Nasdaq and S&P and 8 weeks for the Dow. The major indices are little changed/mixed in pre-market trading. European shares are higher.
In the US debt market, yields are lower to start the day and lower for the week. The 10 year yield is down from 2.785 last Friday to 2.72% currently. The 10 year yields peaked on May 9 at 3.203%. The expectations for a third 50 basis point hike in September was pared back by the markets as housing showed major cracks this week. Both pending home sales and new home sales reacting sharply to the downside as surging home prices and mortgage rates, started to impact demand.
A snapshot of the markets are showing:
Spot gold is trading up $10.19 helped by the falling US dollar. That’s down -0.55% at $1860.64
Spot silver is up $0.37 or 1.71% at $22.36
WTI crude oil is trading down -$0.80 at $113.27
Bitcoin is trading lower at $28,892.93. Ethereum is trading down nearly 3% at $1772.40 as the so-called “Merge” which will see the network transition from the ‘proof of work’ mechanism for mining ‘to proof of stake’ is not expected to be completed before August.
In the premarket for US stocks, the futures markets are implying a little changed market
Dow is trading above and below unchanged. It is currently up 18.81 points after yesterday’s 516.91 point rise
S&P index is up 9 points after rising 79.11 points yesterday
NASDAQ index is up up 60 points after rising 305.91 points yesterday
In Europe: the majorindicesare trading higher
German DAX is up 0.7%
France’s CAC is up 0.8%
UK’s FTSE 100 is up up 0.22%
Spain’s Ibex is up 0.24%
Italy’s FTSE MIB is near unchanged
The US debt market this morning, yields are trading lower
US yields are lower
European benchmark 10 year yields
In the European debt market the benchmark 10 year yields are also moving lower
Remember, the US will be off on Monday in observance of Memorial Day. That may impact end of day activity as traders head for the exits early.