Notes/Observations -Risk appetite gained traction as it fed off the news that China halved the quarantine time for international travelers. Beijing and Shanghai declared zero Covid cases for the first time in months. Shanghai Disneyland set to reopen on June 30th. -Global macro revolved around the G7 and NATO meetings as a comments from officials … Read more
Notes/Observations -European economic data continues to miss expectations as Spain GDP and mortgage lending, Hungary wages, Turkey capacity and confidence, Czech confidence, Italy confidence, Germany IFO survey and UK retail sales all came in worse than forecasted. -As Finland and Sweden markets close for Midsummer’s Eve holiday, the UK and Germany take focus with light … Read more
Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 24: Bond yields continue to look more accommodative for equities, and this equity rally continued yesterday with the sell-off in bond markets. This sell-off has taken place despite an increasingly hawkish Fed. Bond markets now feel a recession is odds on and are scaling back projections … Read more
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 23: Jerome Powell struck a surprisingly consistent tone on Wednesday when he appeared before the Senate Banking Committee. Well, unsurprising really, and consistent only in the fact that he changed his mind yet again. This man is the ultimate central bank flake. We have had … Read more
Notes/Observations – Central banks continued to hike to address inflation (Philippines, Norway in session). Moves recirculate recession concerns and raise second thoughts over rate path trajectories. – Collection of interest rate decisions this morning with both Norway and Philippines hiking 50bps and 25bps respectively, citing inflation as the fundamental target. Indonesia Central Bank left rates … Read more
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, June 21: Equity markets in the US look set for a lower opening on Wednesday after a surge of holiday weekend enthusiasm set markets on a higher path on Tuesday. While 2022 has been a bearish one with all indices now in bear market territory it … Read more
Notes/Observations – Quiet EU morning session as the US markets are closed for Federal holiday. – Slowing in US economic momentum cast some doubt over interest rate rise expectations for the Fed. – While liquidity is reduced, risk appetite has crept back in slightly. Asia closed mixed, with Nikkei225 underperforming at -0.75%. EU indices start … Read more
Notes/Observations – Risk aversion takes a short break as sentiment continues to pivot around inflation and growth concerns. – EU Finance Ministers meet (EcoFin) and trying to get an agreement on the elusive global minimum tax. – BOJ defies speculation it would follow its global peers and move toward tightening; no plans to raise ceiling … Read more
Notes/Observations – Central banks continued to hike to address inflation concerns. – A surprise 50bps raise in key rates by Swiss Central Bank (SNB) marks the first hike in 15 years and sends the SMI tumbling and CHF currency higher. Comments from SNB President Jordan cite that inflation is spreading to goods and services that … Read more
Notes/Observations – Higher volatility as markets continued to be concerned about aggressive central bank policy tightening amid stubbornly high inflation. – Analysts raise the prospect of Fed officials approving a 75bps rate hike this week. – After two large sell-off days across global markets, negative sentiment takes a short break and consolidates ahead of critical … Read more