The AUDUSD is down testing the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at 0.72064.
That MA has seen a number of breaks below – including earlier today – but each fall, has failed in reaching and breaking below the next targets including the upward sloping trend line and the 200 hour MA. Since May 19, when the price based near the 200 hour MA, the price has not been below that MA. Meanwhile, the 100 hour MA has seen 6 or so moves below it, with momentum to the downside failing and the price soldiering back to the upside after the failed moves.
Needless to say, it will take a break of the 100 hour MA with momentum followed by the breaking of the upward sloping trend line and the 200 hour MA at 0.7182 and 0.7170 respectively to give sellers more control.
Absent that and the pair may continue the consolidation, but the buyers would still be holding the stronger hand at least in the medium term.
So far the 100 hour MA is holding (the price is at 0.7215 as I type).
On the topside, the 100 day MA at 0.72287 remains the next key upside target. Earlier today that MA was tested and found sellers on two separate tests. There is a swing area around that MA level between 0.72287 and 0.72347. Move above that area, and the 50% of the move down from the April high at 0.72348 and the 200 day MA at 0.72552 would be targeted.
Last week, the price did move above the 200 day MA for the first time since April 22, but could not sustain the upside momentum.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the daily MAs and 50% makes for a clearer picture. Yes, the price moved above all those levels on Thursday and Friday of last wee3, but also traded below the lower 100 day MA. Today the 100 day MA has provided resistance.
The combination of the hourly chart with its 100 hour MA as key, and the daily chart, with its 100 day MA and failures above the 50%/200 day MA, paint the battlefield picture that the buyers and sellers are going through now.
However, that conflict also help to give traders the clues going forward. Clearly today is about the 100’s – hourly and daily. Once that battle is resolved, the focus shifts to the other targets including the 200 day MA above and the 200 hour MA below.
Tags: #AUDUSD #rotates #rising #hour #day #stalls #move